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| MOSCOW -- Russia may have to tap into rainy-day reserves of billions of dollars to help state finances through the economic crisis and declining oil profits, while Ukraine unveiled new industrial production figures that showed the country moving quickly toward a recession next year. Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin's statement came as the ruble and Russian stocks continued to fall as the country struggles through its worst economic crisis in a decade and as the Central Bank said it will scale back its defense of the national currency. The country's two chief stock exchanges were again shut after sharp stock declines and the central bank spent about $2 billion defending the currency early Wednesday, traders said. In remarks before the Russian upper house of parliament, Mr. Kudrin forecast oil prices to average $50 a barrel next year and $55 in 2010, but said "it would not affect the spending plans in any way." The Russian government had previously forecast oil prices at $95 a barrel for the 2009 budget, but Urals blend crude -- the primary kind of oil produced by Russia -- was down to $53 Wednesday. To make up for the state's lower oil profits, Mr. Kudrin said the government was considering tapping the massive Reserve Fund. The fund consists of oil taxes and was set up several years ago to give the government a cushion against economic blows. Before the crisis hit, talks of tapping the fund was all but taboo. "We will be using the Reserve Fund if oil profits are less than they are described in the budget," Mr. Kudrin said. Meanwhile, in neighboring Ukraine, industrial output plunged almost 20% in October from October 2007 -- the biggest drop since early post-Soviet days. The fall highlighted the decline in world demand for the country's steel exports and moves the country closer to a recession next year. Ukraine agreed to a $16.5 billion loan from the IMF last month, but after the data analysts question whether that higher-than-expected amount would be enough to stop Ukraine's economy from entering free fall. Political instability, almost constant since the 2004 "Orange Revolution" brought pro-Western politicians to power, showed little signs of abating. President Viktor Yushchenko acknowledged that a snap poll he called wouldn't take place by the end of the year and parliament sacked its chairman. Other data Wednesday from the State Statistics Committee showed October industrial output plunged 19.8% year-on-year, the third month in a row output fell year-on-year. 为帮助俄罗斯财政渡过经济危机和解决石油利润下降的难题，俄罗斯政府可能将不得不动用数十亿美元的储备资金。与此同时，乌克兰也发布了新的工业生产数据，但数据显示乌克兰在来年将会迅速走向衰退。 近来，俄罗斯卢布贬值，股市持续下跌。俄罗斯在10年来最为严重的经济危机中苦苦挣扎。俄罗斯中央银行也表示将会相应缩减了保持国家货币稳定的资金。在以上种种难题出现的情况下，俄罗斯财政部长阿列克谢-库德林发表了可能动用储备资金的声明。此外，债券交易人称，在周三早些时候，俄罗斯股市急剧下跌，俄罗斯中央银行动用了约20亿美元来保持货币稳定。随后，俄罗斯的两大主要股票交易所再次被关闭。 在向俄罗斯议会上院发表讲话时，俄罗斯财政部长库德林预测国际石油平均价格在2009年将达到每桶50美元，在2010年将达到55美元。不过，库德林还表示“不管怎样，全球油价下跌不会影响到俄罗斯的财政预算。” 在俄罗斯政府此前通过的2009年预算案中预测，2009年全球油价将达到每桶95美元，但乌拉尔混合原油——俄罗斯生产的原油——周三下降到每桶53美元。 为了弥补俄罗斯出现石油利润较低的局面，库德林表示政府正考虑动用大量政府储备基金。政府储备基金在数年前设立，通过征收石油税所获得的资金将用来帮助俄罗斯政府减轻经济危机所造成的冲击。不过，在经济危机袭来之前，人们都不愿谈论动用政府储备基金。 “如果石油利润远远低于预算案所预测的，我们将要利用储备基金，”库德林如此表示。 与此同时，邻国乌克兰工业产值从2007年10月份到2008年10月份下降了近20％，这是乌克兰自苏联解体以来遭遇的最大跌幅。工业产值的下跌突显出了世界对乌克兰钢铁需求的下降，同时还令乌克兰离走向衰退更进一步。 上月，乌克兰同意从国际货币基金组织获得165亿美元的贷款，但数据分析师质疑高出预期的贷款数目是否可足以阻止乌克兰经济迅速下滑。 自亲西方的政治家于2004年发动“橙色革命”获得执政权以来，乌克兰国内的政治动乱几乎仍在不断发生，而且还未出现减缓的迹象。乌克兰总统尤先科也承认，由其倡导的实时调查将无法在今年年底以前开展，而且议会还罢免了议长。 周三，国家统计委员会的数据显示，与去年同期相比，乌克兰10月的工业产值下降了19.8％，而且是连续下降了三个月。 |
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