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Renowned US economist John Rutledge, who helped frame. the fiscal policies of two former US presidents warned that an abrupt rise in China’s currency could lead to another Asian financial crisis. The founder of Rutledge Capital told the media that if the Yuan rises too fast and too high, it would discourage foreign direct investment in China, while encouraging currency manipulation by market speculators. Currency change is more difficult for investors and more exciting for speculators. The Chinese currency has appreciated by more than 5% since July 2005 when the country allowed the Yuan to float against the US dollar with a daily band of 0.3%. The analysts are expecting the currency to rise another 4% by the end of this year. But if the Yuan rose 20% to 30% as some US politicians are demanding, it would jeopardize the Chinese economy, causing a recession and deflation. Similar advice to allow an abrupt appreciation of a currency led to the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and came very close to destroying the Japanese economy. The US economist says that investors want foremost to avoid risks associated with large fluctuations in currency and inflation. They calculate returns on their investment after evaluating risks to benefits such as lower labor cost. A rising Yuan will drive up labor costs for foreign investors and would not result in higher wages for workers. Earlier reports said that currency speculators had pumped 200 billion US dollars into China by the end of last year with another 70 billion US dollars flowing into the economy in the first 3 months of this year. There’s no way to accurately track the flow of this type of investment, and many economists disagree that the amount of speculative cash is so high. Instead of further appreciating its currency, China should make the Yuan convertible to the US dollar. If the Yuan were more easily converted into foreign currencies, it would allow Chinese companies to expand overseas, facilitate the purchase of foreign technology, and provide management experience and capital that China needs. It would also shrink Forex reserves and reduce speculative money coming into the country.
