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阅读：How the world will be in 2025

来源：发布时间：2008-12-16

How the world will be in 2025
　　2025美国“老大”地位完成时？
　　AT UN headquarters in New York, half of the world's leaders are meeting in the general assembly. But outside the building, aircraft carriers are evacuating thousands in the wake of flooding. A hurricane has hit the city.
　　Fortunately, this is not a real news report. It is an imaginary diary entry written by a future US president. This diary is part of Global Trends 2025, a report that envisages a world marked by environmental disasters, diminished US power and fewer resources. It was written by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) ahead of President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration.
　　The NIC, an independent government body, emphasizes that its report is not about "crystal-ball gazing". It wants to offer a range of potential futures, including the following key trends:
　　Education
　　The US lead in highly skilled labor will likely narrow. China will begin to reap dividends in investments in human capital, including education, nutrition and healthcare. India faces a challenge because top-flight educational institutions cater to a relatively privileged few.
　　US dominance
　　The US will remain the single most important actor in 2025, but it will be less dominant. It will retain its considerable military advantages, but its scientific and technological advances will slow. US policy is likely to be strongly determined by internal developments in a number of key states, particularly China and Russia.
　　West vs. East
　　Global wealth and economic power will shift from West to East. Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) are picked as countries which could benefit. Rising oil and commodity prices will generate large profits for the Gulf states and Russia. A shift in manufacturing and some service industries to Asia will enrich China and India.
　　Rising China
　　China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next two decades than any other country. If current trends persist, by 2025 China will have the world's second largest economy, and its military will play an important role.
　　Technology
　　The transition from old fuels to new will be slow, as will the development of new technologies that present viable alternatives to fossil fuels or help eliminate food and water problems. All current technologies are inadequate, and new ones will probably not be commercially viable by 2025.
　　Global pandemic
　　The emergence of a highly transmissible and virulent human respiratory illness could cause a global pandemic. The most likely starting point for a pandemic would be a place with a large human population and close association with animals – such as many parts of China and Southeast Asia.
　　Read tomorrow's newspaper today
　　HERE are two imaginary pieces of writing created by Global Trends 2025. They give us a peep into the future:
　　I guess the problem (The New York hurricane) was that we counted on this not happening, at least not yet. Most scientists assumed that the worst effects of climate change would occur later in the century. We all assume technology will come to the rescue, but so far we have not found the silver bullet.
　　US president's diary entry,
　　October 1, 2020
　　We are in a new era in which governments are no longer king. Instead, non-state groups, like NGOs, professional groups and religious groups, are playing increasingly important roles in dealing with cross-national issues, from water shortage to renewable energy.
　　Politics is not always local, Financial Times, September 14, 2024
　　assembly 集会
　　buyout 全部买下
　　chief 酋长
　　evacuate 疏散
　　gulf 海湾
　　hurricane 飓风
　　namesake 同名物
　　pandemic 瘟疫
　　peep 窥看
　　plummet 垂直落下
　　portal 门户网站
　　respiratory 呼吸的
　　rollercoaster 过山车
　　transmissible 可传播的
　　virulent 有病毒的
　　BONUS
　　Expressions
　　be poised to 准备做…
　　Our company is poised to leap into a new consumer market next year. 明年我们公司打算进入新的市场。
　　in the wake of 紧接着
　　In the wake of her mother's death, she decided to return home. 她母亲去世后，她立马决定回家。
　　cater to迎合
　　This book caters to people who want to know more about the future of digital technology. 这本书迎合了想了解数码科技未来走势的读者。

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