Declining populations：Incredible shrinking countries
During the second half of the 20th century, the global population explosion was the big demographic bogey. Robert McNamara, president of the World Bank in the 1970s, compared the threat of unmanageable population pressures with the danger of nuclear war. Now that worry has evaporated, and this century is spooking itself with the opposite fear: the onset of demographic decline.
The shrinkage of Russia and eastern Europe is familiar, though not perhaps the scale of it: Russia’s population is expected to fall by 22% between 2005 and 2050, Ukraine’s by a staggering 43%. Now the phenomenon is creeping into the rich world: Japan has started to shrink and others, such as Italy and Germany, will soon follow. Even China’s population will be declining by the early 2030s, according to the UN, which projects that by 2050 populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries.
Demographic decline worries people because it is believed to go hand in hand with economic decline. At the extremes it may well be the result of economic factors: pessimism may depress the birth rate and push up rates of suicide and alcoholism. But, in the main, demographic decline is the consequence of the low fertility that generally goes with growing prosperity. In Japan, for instance, birth rates fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman in the mid1970s and have been particularly low in the past 15 years.
But if demographic decline is not generally a consequence of economic decline, surely it must be a cause? In a crude sense, yes. As populations shrink, GDP growth will slow. Some economies may even start to shrink, too. The result will be a loss of economic influence.
Governments hate the idea of a shrinking population because the absolute size of GDP matters for greatpower status. The bigger the economy, the bigger the military, the greater the geopolitical clout: annual GDP estimates were first introduced in America in the 1940s as part of its war effort. Companies worry, too: they do not like the idea of their domestic markets shrinking. People should not mind, though. What matters for economic welfare is GDP per person.
The crucial question is therefore what the effect of demographic decline is on the growth of GDP per person. The bad news is that this looks likely to slow because workingage populations will decline more rapidly than overall populations. Yet this need not happen. Productivity growth may keep up growth in GDP per person: as labour becomes scarcer, and pressure to introduce new technologies to boost workers’ efficiency increases, so the productivity of labour may rise faster. Anyway, retirement ages can be lifted to increase the supply of labour even when the population is declining.
People love to worry-maybe it’s a symptom of ageing populations-but the gloom surrounding population declines misses the main point. The new demographics that are causing populations to age and to shrink are something to celebrate. Humanity was once caught in the trap of high fertility and high mortality. Now it has escaped into the freedom of low fertility and low mortality. Women’s control over the number of children they have is an unqualified good-as is the average person’s enjoyment, in rich countries, of ten more years of life than they had in 1960. Politicians may fear the decline of their nations’ economic prowess, but people should celebrate the new demographics as heralding a golden age.
Pressure
n.①压（力）；②强制，压迫，压强；v.强制，迫使
［真题例句］ They can hope that, if one province includes a drug on its list, the pressure (n.①) will cause others to include it on theirs.［2005年新题型］
［例句精译］ 他们可能会认为如果一个省把一种药包括在一个药品名录单上，就会迫使其他省把这种药也包括在药品名录单上。
opposite
a.（to）对面的，对立的，相反的；n.对立面，对立物；prep.在......的对面
shrink
v.①起皱，收缩；②退缩，畏缩
［真题例句］ Some huge American industries, such as consumer electronics, had shrunk (①) or vanished in the face of foreign competition.［2000年阅读1］
［例句精译］ 面对国外竞争，一些大型的美国工业，如消费电子产业，已经萎缩或渐渐消失。
extreme
a.①末端的，尽头的；②极度的，极端的；n.①极端；②最大程度；③极度（状态）
［真题例句］ Shippers who feel they are being overcharged have the right to appeal to the federal governments Surface Transportation Board for rate relief, but the process is expensive, time consuming, and will work only in truly extreme (a.②) cases.［2003年阅读3］
［例句精译］ 如果客户感到他们被多收费，他们有权上诉到联邦政府的"陆路运输委员会"以争取价格下调，但这个过程耗财、耗时，并且只有在真正极端特殊的情况下才有作用。
［真题例句］ (73) It leads the discussion to extremes (n.①) at the outset: it invites you to think that animals should be treated either with the consideration humans extend to other humans, or with no consideration at all. ［1997年翻译］
［例句精译］ （73）这种说法从一开始就将讨论引向两个极端。它使人们认为应当这样对待动物：要么像对人类自身一样关心体谅，要么完全冷漠无情。
prosperity
n.繁荣，兴旺
［真题例句］ Americans stopped taking prosperity for granted.［2000年阅读1］
［例句精译］ 美国不再视繁荣为理所当然之事。
Decline
v./n. ①下倾，下降，下垂，衰落；②斜面，倾斜；v.拒绝，谢绝
［真题例句］ Could the bad old days of economic decline (n.①) be about to return? ［2002年阅读3］
［例句精译］ 过去经济衰落的日子会不会重来？
Escape
n.逃跑，逃脱；v.逃跑；避开，避免 Little Tips:
据《欧洲时报》援引法新社报导，欧洲委员会近日公布的一份研究报告预测，到2050年，欧洲的人口与1995年的相比，可能会减少13%到22%。保加利亚乡镇联合会会长鲍里斯拉夫?鲍里索夫15日警告说，保加利亚人口持续减少，如果政府继续忽视这一问题，该国将于本世纪中叶出现严重的人口危机。日本的人口老化与生育率低落问题可能对这个全球第二大经济体造成严重打击，因为工作供养退休老人的年轻人越来越少。人口衰退在目前成为一个全球性问题。
衰退的人口：以惊人的速度减小的国家
在二十世纪后半叶，全球人口大爆炸还是令人担忧的人口问题。70年代，世界银行行长Robert McNamara甚至还把人口压力所带来的威胁与核战相提并论，然而在今天看来，这种忧虑已经不复存在了。这个世纪悄悄过去了，带给人们的却是一个恰恰相反的忧虑：人口衰退开始初露端倪。
尽管俄罗斯和东欧各国人口递减的具体比例可能不被知晓，但对这一事实人们已经有所了解。实际上，从2005年到2050年，俄罗斯的人口预计会减少22%，而乌克兰竟然有43%之多。今天这一现象在发达国家也悄然出现：日本人口已经开始递减，而其他的一些国家，如：意大利和德国，也将步日本的后尘。联合国有关报告指出，即便是中国，到2030年初期人口也将开始递减。这份报告同时还指出，到2050年，将有50个国家的人口低于今天的水平。
人口的衰退之所以让人们担心，是因为人们相信与之相伴随的是经济的衰退。进一步来说，我们有理由认为人口的衰退是经济因素导致的。因为悲观会降低出生率却会提高自杀和酒精中毒的比率。但是，大体上人口降低是由人口出生率过低导致的。而低的人口出生率通常与不断增进的繁荣相联系。比如在日本七十年代中期，出生率降至相当于平均每个妇女生2.1个孩子以下，而且在过去的15年里一直明显的偏低。
但是如果人口衰退不是一般意义上的经济衰退所导致的后果，那么它确切地说一定是它的一个原因吗？在某种不确定的意义上，答案是肯定的。随着人口的衰退，GDP的增长也将缓慢。一些经济体甚至也开始衰退。其结果将是经济影响力的丧失。
政府不愿意看到人口的收缩，因为GDP的绝对大小关乎强国的地位。经济越繁荣，军队越强大，地缘政治的影响也就越大。比如在四十年代，美国首次把年GDP评估的引入作为其战争成就的一部分。公司也不愿看到人口衰退。因为他们不想自己的国内市场有所收缩。但普通人对此却并不关心，因为关系他们经济福利的是人均GDP。
因此，至关重要的问题是人口衰退对人均GDP增长的影响是怎样的。不利的一面是它将减缓人均GDP的增长，因为适宜工作的人口将比总人口下降的更快一些。然而这也并不一定会发生。生长率的增长将维持人均GDP的增长。由于劳动者的不足和引进增加工人效率的新技术的压力的增大，劳动者的生产率可能会增长得更快。无论怎样，即使当人口正在衰退的时候，我们仍然可以通过提高退休年限的方式来增加劳动力的供给。
人们喜欢担忧--这可能是上年纪的人的症状--但围绕着人口衰退的忧愁却没有抓住要害。引发人口老龄化和衰退的新人口问题也有值得庆幸的地方。人类过去掉入高出生率和高死亡率的陷阱，而现在逃到了低出生率和低死亡率的自由之地。女人拥有一种绝对的优势，那就是对自己生孩子的数量的掌控。在发达国家，对普通人而言，能比六十年代的人多享受十年的生活也同样是种绝对优势。政治家可能会担心他们国家的经济实力下降。而我们普通人应该为新人口问题所预兆的黄金时代而欢呼。 A fuzzy picture
"THIS is a really exciting time-a new era is starting," says Peter Bazalgette, the chief creative officer of Endemol, the television company behind "Big Brother" and other popular shows. He is referring to the upsurge of interest in mobile television, a nascent industry at the intersection of telecoms and media which offers new opportunities to devicemakers, content producers and mobilenetwork operators.
Already, many mobile operators offer a selection of television channels or individual shows, which are "streamed" across their thirdgeneration (3G) networks. In South Korea, television is also sent to mobile phones via satellite and terrestrial broadcast networks, which is far more efficient than sending video across mobile networks. In Europe, the Italian arm of 3, a mobile operator, recently acquired Canale 7, a television channel, with a view to launching mobileTV broadcasts in Italy in the second half of 2006.
Meanwhile, Apple Computer, which launched a videocapable version of its iPod portable musicplayer in October, is striking deals with television networks to expand the range of shows that can be purchased for viewing on the device, including "Lost", "Desperate Housewives" and "Law & Order".
Despite all this activity, however, the prospects for mobile TV are unclear. For a start, nobody really knows if consumers will pay for it, though surveys suggest they like the idea. Informa, a consultancy, says there will be 125m mobileTV users by 2010. But many other mobile technologies inspired high hopes and then failed to live up to expectations. And even if people do want TV on the move, there is further uncertainty in two areas: technology and business models.
At the moment, mobile TV is mostly streamed over 3G networks. But sending an individual data stream to each viewer is inefficient and will be unsustainable in the long run if mobile TV takes off. So the general consensus is that 3G streaming is a prelude to the construction of dedicated mobileTV broadcast networks, which transmit digital TV signals on entirely different frequencies to those used for voice and data. There are three main standards: DVBH, favoured in Europe; DMB, which has been adopted in South Korea and Japan; and MediaFLO, which is being rolled out in America. Watching TV using any of these technologies requires a TVcapable handset, of course.
In contrast, watching downloaded TV programmes on an iPod or other portable video player is already possible today. And unlike a programme streamed over 3G or broadcast via a dedicated mobileTV network, shows stored on an iPod can be watched on an underground train or in regions with patchy network coverage. That suggests that some shows (such as drama) better suit the download model, while others (such as live news, sports or reality shows) are better suited to realtime transmission. The two approaches will probably coexist.
Just as there are several competing mobileTV technologies, there are also many possible business models. Mobile operators might choose to build their own mobileTV broadcast networks; or they could form a consortium and build a shared network; or existing broadcasters could build such networks.
The big question is whether the broadcasters and mobile operators can agree how to divide the spoils, assuming there are any. Broadcasters own the content, but mobile operators generally control the handsets, and they do not always see eye to eye. In South Korea, a consortium of broadcasters launched a freetoair DMB network last month, but the country’s mobile operators were reluctant to provide their users with handsets able to receive the broadcasts, since they were unwilling to undermine the prospects for their own subscriptionbased mobileTV services.
Then there is the question of who will fund the production of mobileTV content: broadcasters, operators or advertisers? Again, the answer is probably "all of the above".
launch
v.①发射；②使（船）下水；③发动，开展；
n.发射，下水
［真题例句］The debate was launched (v.③) by the Government, which invited anyone with an opinion of the BBC-including ordinary listeners and viewers-to say what was good or bad about the Corporation, and even whether they thought it was worth keeping.［1996年阅读2］
［例句精译］这场争论是英国政府发起的，它邀请每一位对BBC有看法的人--包括普通的听众和观众--对公司好坏进行评论，甚至可以评论他们是否认为公司值得办下去。
inspire
v.①鼓舞，激起；②使产生灵感
consensus
n.（意见等）一致，一致同意
［真题例句］ In a draft preface to the recommendations, discussed at the 17 May meeting, Shapiro suggested that the panel had found a broad consensus that it would be "morally unacceptable to attempt to create a human child by adult nuclear cloning."［1999年阅读4］
［例句精译］ 在5月17日会议上讨论的建议序言草案中，夏皮罗表示，专家组已取得广泛的共识，认为"试图利用成人细胞核去克隆婴儿从道义上讲是无法接受的"。
transmit
v.①传播，发射；②传递，传导
［真题例句］ 61. From the passage we can infer that.［1995年阅读3］
［A］ electronic mail will soon play a dominant role in transmitting (①) messages
［例句精译］ 61根据本文，我们可以推断出：
［A］电子邮件将很快在信息传播中起主导作用
adopt
v.①采用，采纳，通过；②收养
［真题例句］ Too many schools adopt (①) the "win at all costs" moral standard and measure their success by sporting achievements.［1995年阅读4］
［例句精译］ 太多的学校采用"不惜一切代价获取成功"的道德标准并通过炫耀成绩来估量孩子们是否成功。
portable
a.轻便的，手提（式）的
移动电视技术
从目前全球范围内手机电视的业务开展来看，存在两种最主要的方式：流媒体和广播。
为了开发手机电视的市场需求，部分电信系统商已经开始在手机上提供电视收视的服务，
这些服务和传统电视并不相同，手机通过电信网络（2.5G/2.75G/3G）连接到媒体服务器，
采用点对点流媒体方式播放，而非多点式的广播。但当3G的使用越来越普遍后，利用大�科德侍峁┝鄣缡幽谌莸牟シ沤嵩嚼丛讲痪茫倍源蠊婺５纳桃翟擞诩际跎弦蚕嗟辈皇导省Ｊ只缡右滴袷菔峭ü佬腔虻孛媸止悴ダ唇写洹５牵捎诠悴シ绞娇赡芡鼻Ｉ娴降缧旁擞毯凸悴ネ缭擞蹋桃的Ｊ缴舷喽愿丛樱乇鹗窃诠苤平涎系墓沂苷咭蛩氐挠跋旖洗螅圃冀隙啵逃迷擞匆欢ǖ哪讯取�
移动电视正在出现--但是市场将怎样发展下去却仍然不得而知
"这真是一个令人激动的时刻 --一个新的时代正在开始"，Endemol 电视公司的首席创意官Peter Bazalgette这样宣称，他谈到了众人对移动电视的巨大兴趣，这是一个在电信和媒体领域有交叉的新兴产业，给设备制造商、电视内容制作者以及移动网络运营商提供了新的机遇。
许多移动网络运营商已经通过他们的第三代（3G）网络用流媒体方式提供了一些电视频道以及个人表演。在韩国，电视节目也通过卫星和地面广播网传送给移动电话，这远比通过移动网络传输视频更为有效。最近在欧洲，意大利3G移动运营商买下了一个电视频道"第七频道"，目的是为了2006年下半年在意大利发射移动电视信号。
与此同时，苹果电脑公司在10月发售了一款可以观看电视的便携式音乐播放器iPod，这个播放器大大扩展了电视网络节目的范围，其可以供用户购买的、用于在移动终端的节目范围令人惊奇，包括《迷失》、《绝望的主妇》以及《法律与秩序》。
然而，尽管有这么多的商业行为，移动电视的前景依旧是不明朗的。作为一个开端，没有人真正清楚消费者是否乐意为它付费，即使调查显示他们喜欢这个主意。一个名为Informa的顾问表示到2010年将会有1.23亿移动电视用户。但是有许多其他的移动技术尽管给了人们很高的期待，最终却没能做出成绩。就算人们真的需要在移动中观看电视，还有两方面的不确定因素存在着：技术和商业模式。
在现阶段，移动电视主要通过3G网络用流媒体方式来传送，但是给每一个观众发送一段单独的数据流的效果会很差，而且在长时间的运动中也会不稳定，比如说在移动电视被关闭时。因此大多数人认为3G技术只是建立起一个专门的移动电视广播网络的前奏，这个网络以一种全然不同的频率为使用声音和数据的人传送数字电视信号，主要分为3种：DVBH，主要在欧洲受到欢迎；DMB，正在韩国和日本被采用；以及MediaFLO，已经在美国铺开其网络。
与此相反，在iPod或其他便携式视频播放器上观看下载的电视节目已经成为可能，而且不像那些通过3G网络或专用移动电视网传送的节目，人们可以在地铁里或者网络信号覆盖不稳定的地区观看储存在iPod上的节目。这说明有些节目（比如戏剧）比较适合用下载的形式，而另一些节目（比如现场直播新闻、体育节目或现场节目）更加适合实时播送。这两种方法有可能共存。
就像有几种互相竞争的移动电视技术那样，同样存在着几种可能的商业模式。移动运营商也许会选择建立起他们自己的移动电视广播网；或者他们可以组成联盟建立起一个共享网络；或者现有的广播公司会建立起类似的网络。
如果这个网络可以赢利，关键问题就是广播公司能否和移动运营商就如何划分利益达成一致。广播公司拥有节目内容，但掌上终端通常都由移动运营商控制，而且他们并不总是意见一致。在韩国，广播公司联盟上个月开播了一个免费的DMB网络，但是这个国家的移动运营商却并不愿意为他们的用户提供能够接收这个广播信号的掌上终端，因为他们不愿破坏他们自己拥有付费移动电视业务的前景。
于是，接下来的问题就是谁将投资移动电视内容的制作：广播公司、运营商还是广告商？同样的，答案很可能是"他们所有人"。 A meaty questionNO.3
IF YOU have ever longed for a meat substitute that smelt and tasted like the real thing, but did not involve killing an animal, then your order could be ready soon. Researchers believe it will soon be possible to grow cultured meat in quantities large enough to offer the meat industry an alternative source of supply.
Growing muscle cells (the main component of meat) in a nutrient broth is easy. The difficulty is persuading those cells to form something that resembles real meat. Paul Kosnik, the head of engineering at a firm called Tissue Genesis, is hoping to do it by stretching the cells with mechanical anchors. This encourages them to form small bundles surrounded by connective tissue, an arrangement similar to real muscle.
Robert Dennis, a biomedical engineer at the University of North Carolina, believes the secret of growing healthy muscle tissue in a laboratory is to understand how it interacts with its surroundings. In nature, tissues exist as elements in a larger system and they depend on other tissues for their survival. Without appropriate stimuli from their neighbours they degenerate. Dr Dennis and his team have been working on these neighbourly interactions for the past three years and report some success in engineering two of the most important-those between muscles and tendons, and muscles and nerves.
At the Touro College School of Health Sciences in New York, Morris Benjaminson and his team are working on removing living tissue from fish, and then growing it in culture. This approach has the advantage that the tissue has a functioning system of blood vessels to deliver nutrients, so it should be possible to grow tissue cultures more than a millimetre thick-the current limit.
Henk Haagsman, a meat scientist at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, is trying to make minced pork from cultured stem cells with the backing of Stegeman, a sausage company. It could be used in sausages, burgers and sauces.
But why would anyone want to eat cultured meat, rather than something freshly slaughtered and just off the bone? One answer, to mix metaphors, is that it would allow vegetarians to have their meatloaf and eat it too. But the sausagemeat project suggests another reason: hygiene. As Ingrid Newkirk of PETA, an animalrights group, puts it, "no one who considers what’s in a meat hot dog could genuinely express any revulsion at eating a clean cloned meat product."
Cultured meat could be grown in sterile conditions, avoiding Salmonella, E. coli, Campylobacter and other nasties. It could also be made healthier by adjusting its composition-introducing heartfriendly omega-3 fatty acids, for example. You could even take a cell from an endangered animal and, without threatening its extinction, make meat from it. Giantpanda steak, anyone?
substitute
n.代用品，代替品；v.（for）代替，替换
［真题例句］ In talking to some scientists, particularly younger ones, you might gather the impression that they find the "scientific method" a substitute (n.) for imaginative thought.［1999年阅读5］
［例句精译］ 在和一些科学家，特别是年轻科学家交谈时，你可能会有这样一种印象：他们认为"科学方法"可以代替创造性思维。
resemble
v.像，类似
tissue
n.①织物，薄绢，纸巾；②（动、植物的）组织
stretch
v.拉长，延伸；n.①一段时间，一段路程；②延伸
［真题例句］ It is a remarkable record, stretching (v.) back over 70 years-yet the BBCs future is now in doubt.［1996年阅读2］
［例句精译］ 七十多年来，BBC可谓历程辉煌，然而现在，BBC的未来却令人疑虑。
vessel
n.①容器，器皿；②船，舰；③管，血管
［真题例句］ Todays vessels (②) can find their prey using satellites and sonar, which were not available 50 years ago.［2006年阅读3］
［例句精译］ 今天的渔船能够使用五十年前没有的卫星和声纳来追踪他们的猎物。
slaughter
n.屠宰，残杀，屠杀；v.屠宰，残杀，屠杀
译文：
荷兰科学家取得了一项用细胞"培育"肉类，并出售给人类食用的计划的专利权。
阿姆斯特丹大学皮肤学专家维特·韦斯特霍夫称，可以用在实验室的培养皿中培育皮肤细胞的方法来培育肌肉组织。出售这种在实验室中培育的肉类将使大量动物免遭屠宰。
韦斯特霍夫正在寻求投资者。他认为，可以在容积为5000升的巨型培养池中培育每块至少50克的现成瘦肉块。
他和另外两位商人在全球很多地方都取得了这项计划的专利权。专利证书称赞这种肉没有脂肪和软骨。猪、牛、鸡、袋鼠和鲸鱼的细胞全都可以使用。
这项计划仍需改进，因为迄今的试验结果显示，细胞要23天才能增加一倍。
一个食用肉类的问题
如果你曾经希望能有一种肉类的替代品，闻起来和尝起来都像真的，但是并不是通过杀害动物得来的，那么你的要求将在不久之后得到满足。研究者相信培养肉类马上就可能大量生产，作为一种供给的替代品供应肉类工业。
在富有营养的肉汤中使瘦肉细胞成长（肉类的主要成分）是一件容易的事情。困难在于使这些细胞能组成像真的肉类那样的东西。一个名为"组织创世纪"公司的工程师的首领Paul Kosnrk希望利用机械锚定技术来拉伸细胞。这种技术刺激细胞形成被结缔组织环绕的细小肌肉束，和真的肌肉的组织形式相类似。
北卡罗来纳州立大学的生物医学工程师Robert Dennis相信，在实验室中培养出健康的肌肉组织的秘密在于理解肌肉组织是怎样和环境相互作用的。自然界中，肌肉组织作为一个更大的机体组织的基础而存在，并且依靠这个机体中的其他组织而存在。如果没有它们的邻居适当的刺激，它们就将退化。Dennis博士和他的团队在过去的三年里研究了这些相似的组织的相互作用，并且发表了在两个最重要的生物工程学方面成功的研究--肌肉组织和结缔组织的关系，以及肌肉组织和神经组织的关系。
在纽约托罗大学的保健科学学院，Morris Benjaminson和他的团队正在研究怎样从鱼的身体上取下活体组织，然后人工培养。这种方法的优点是，组织有一个输送养分功能的血管系统，这样它就可以在人工环境中生长出超过厘米数量级的厚度--这也是现今生长的极限。
荷兰Utrecht 大学的肉类科学家Henk Haagsman正在试图从Stegeman香肠公司得到对其碎块猪肉的支持，这些猪肉块源于人工生长的细胞。这种材料可以用到香肠，汉堡和寿司中去。
然而，为什么一个人想要食用人工的，而不是刚宰了并剔骨后的新鲜的肉类呢？含糊地说，这样可以让素食者们拥有并享用他们理想的肉块。但是香肠肉类工程还有另外一个原因：卫生。正如动物权利组织PETA的Ingrid Newkrik指出的："想到热狗里面的肉原来是什么时，没有人会在心底里反对食用干净的克隆肉类制品"。
人工肉类可以在无菌环境中培养起来，以避免沙门氏菌，大肠杆菌，弯曲状杆菌以及其他脏东西。也可以通过对成分的调节来使得其更加健康--例如，引进有益心脏的omega3型脂肪酸。在丝毫不威胁到物种种群的情况下，你甚至还可以从快要灭绝的动物身上取下细胞，用这些细胞来培养成肉。大熊猫肉排，还有呢？ Aircraft emissions: The dirty sky
All big ideas start life on the fringes of debate. Very often it takes a shocking event to move them into the mainstream. Until last year interest in climate change was espoused mainly by scientists and green lobbyists-and the few politicians they had badgered into paying attention. But since Hurricane Katrina, something seems to have changed, particularly in America.
There are plenty of anecdotal signs of change: Britain’s pro business Tories have turned green; Al Gore is back in fashion in America. Companies are beginning to take action and encouraging governments to do the same. Europe already has an emissions trading system (ETS) for its five dirtiest industries. In America, although the Bush administration still resists federal legislation, more and more states do not.
So far the political about global warming have centred on two polluters, smoggy factories and dirty cars. Next month the European Parliament will vote on whether to extend its emissions trading system to airlines. If it decides in favor, the whole industry will feel the impact, for it will affect not just European airlines but all those that fly into and out of the EU. Talk about this prospect soured the International Air Transport Association’s annual meeting this week in Paris. But whatever happens in the EU, the airlines look set to face vociferous demands that they should pay for their emissions.
In some ways, the airlines are an odd target for greens. They produce only around 3% of the world’s man made carbon emissions. Surface transport, by contrast, produces 22%. Europe’s merchant ships spew out around a third more carbon than aircraft do, and nobody is going after them. And unlike cars-potent symbols of individualism-airlines are public transport, jamming in as many people as they can into each plane.
What’s more, many air travelers cannot easily switch. Car drivers can hop on the train or the bus, but transatlantic travelers can’t row from London to New York. Nor can aircraft fuel be swapped for a green alternative. Car drivers can buy electro petrol hybrids but aircraft are, for now, stuck with kerosene, because its energy density makes it the only practical fuel to carry around in the air.
Yet in other ways, airlines are a fine target. They pay no tax on fuel for international flights, and therefore escape the "polluter pays" principle even more niftily than other forms of transport. Their emissions are especially damaging, too-partly because the nitrogen oxides from jet engine exhausts help create ozone, a potent greenhouse gas, and partly because the pretty trails that aircraft leave behind them help make the clouds that can intensify the greenhouse effect.
Slowly, businessmen and politicians are coming to agree with scientists. If this generation does not tackle climate change, its descendants will not think much of it. That means raising costs for all sources of pollution. Even those deceptively cheap weekend breaks cannot be exempt.
debate
v./n. 争论，辩论
［真题例句］ And so it does-and all would be well were reason the only judge in the creationism/evolution debate(n.).［1996年阅读5］
［例句精译］ 的确如此--如果理性是创世纪论和进化论之争的惟一标准，一切问题也就迎刃而解了。
administration
n.①管理，经营；②行政（机关，部门）；③政府
［真题例句］ If the Administration (②) won’t take the legislative initiative, Congress should help to begin fashioning conservation measures.［2005年阅读2］
［例句精译］假如行政部门没有采取司法行动，议会就应该协助来推广环保措施。
prospect
n.①景色；②前景，前途，展望
［真题例句］ The prospects (②) for cure, though still distant, are brighter.［1994年阅读4］
［例句精译］ 治癌前景尽管遥远，但已越来越明朗。
odd
a.①奇数的，单的；②奇怪的，古怪的；③单只的，不成对的；④临时的，不固定的；⑤带零头的，余的
［真题例句］ In an odd (②) way, however, it is the educated who have claimed to have give up on ambition as an ideal.［2000年阅读5］
［例句精译］ 然而，恰恰是那些受过良好教育的人却不可思议地声称他们已经放弃了雄心壮志这一理想。
switch
n.①开关，电闸；②转换；③枝条，鞭子；v.①转换；②（off）判断；③（on）接通
［真题例句］ Moreover, most of the changes that companies make are intended to keep them profitable, and this need not always mean increasing productivity: switching (v.①) to new markets or improving quality can matter just as much.［1998年阅读2］
［例句精译］ 另外，公司的大部分改革是为了赢利，而达到赢利的目的不一定非要提高生产力：转入新的市场或改善产品质量也会有同样的功效。
nitrogen
n.氮
［真题例句］ Vitamins are similar because they are made of the same elements-usually carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and (45：sometimes) nitrogen.［1996年完形］
［例句精译］ 各种维生素都很相似，因为它们由同样的元素构成，一般是碳、氢、氧，有时还有氮。
descendant
n.子孙，后代
［真题例句］ But however amazed our descendants may be at how far from Utopia we were, they will look just like us.［2000年阅读2］
［例句精译］ 但是，不管我们的子孙后代对我们离乌托邦的理想境界还差多远感到有多么惊讶，他们的样子会同我们差不了多少。
Little Tips：
航空业加剧温室效应，飞机排放的污染物更易导致全球气候变暖.
航空业是气候变暖的另一罪魁祸首。飞机每年排放3亿吨温室气体。因飞机在高空飞行，它所排放的污染物比地面排放的污染物对大气的影响更大，更易导致温室效应的产生和全球气候的变化。
如何控制航空业的温室气体排放：使外部成本向内部转化。作为温室气体排放的大户，各大航空公司应对其造成的环境污染支付等额的费用作为补偿。
飞机排放物：肮脏的天空
所有的重要观念都在争论的边缘产生，而且通常发生了令人震惊的事件后这些观念才会成为主流。直到去年为止，关心气候变化的人群主要是科学家以及环保主义者--以及少数一些对此表示关心的政客。但是自从卡特里娜飓风出现以来，有些事情似乎开始改变，特别是在美国。
有足够的迹象表明变化的出现：英国的亲商保守党开始向绿党阵营转变；Al Gore在美国重新变得受欢迎。各个公司开始采取行动，同时也鼓励政府这样做。欧洲已经为它污染最为严重的5个工业制定了排放交易方案。在美国，尽管布什政府仍然抵制进行联邦立法，越来越多的州却开始地方立法。
到目前为止有关全球变暖的政治纷争主要集中在两种污染者身上：排放废气的工厂以及污染的汽车。下个月欧洲议会将投票决定是否在航空业适用排放交易方案。如果决定是肯定的，那么整个民航业将受到影响，因为这个方案不仅影响欧洲的航线，同样也对到达欧洲和飞离欧洲的航线产生作用。谈论这种可能性使在巴黎召开的国际航空运输协会年会的气氛变得紧张起来。但是不管欧盟如何决定，航空公司看起来必须面对他们应当为他们排放的废气付费的强大的呼声。
在某些方面，航空公司对绿色政治组织来说是一个奇怪的目标。它们排放的碳污染仅仅只占世界人为碳污染的3%。相较而言，地面运输占了22%。欧洲商船排放的碳比飞机排放的要多三分之一左右，但是却没有人追究它们。而且不像汽车--利己主义的重要标志--飞机是公共交通，在每架飞机内塞入尽可能多的人。
何况许多乘飞机出行的人无法那么容易地改乘其他交通工具。小汽车司机可以乘火车或者公车，但是一个横穿大西洋的旅行者不可能从伦敦划船到纽约。同样的，航空燃料也不能用无污染的替代品来替换。小汽车司机可以购买电力汽油混合动力的汽车，但是飞机只能用煤油，因为它的能量密度使其成为唯一可以在空中携带的燃料。
但是从其他方面来说，航空公司又是一个很好的攻击目标。他们不为国际飞行中的燃料付税，从而比起其他运输工具来更多地从"污染者付费"的原则中逃脱。而且他们的排放物特别具有破坏性，部分原因是喷气式发动机排放的氮氧化合物促使温室气体臭氧的合成，部分原因是飞机飞过后留下的漂亮尾烟帮助云层形成从而加剧温室效应。
慢慢地，生意人和政治家们都开始同意科学家的看法。如果这一代人不解决气候变化的问题，那下一代人也不会重视。这意味着将为所有形式的污染付出更高的成本。就算是现在似乎很便宜的周末旅行也不能例外地变得昂贵。 Behind the bleeding edge
MANKIND’S progress in developing new gizmos is often referred to as the "march of technology". That conjures up images of constant and relentless forward movement orchestrated with military precision. In reality, technological progress is rather less orderly. Some technologies do indeed improve at such a predictable pace that they obey simple formulae such as Moore’s law, which acts as a battle plan for the semiconductor industry. Other technologies proceed by painful lurches-think of thirdgeneration mobile phones, or new versions of Microsoft Windows. And there are some cases, particularly in the developing world, when technological progress takes the form of a leapfrog.
Such leapfrogging involves adopting a new technology directly, and skipping over the earlier, inferior versions of it that came before. By far the bestknown example is that of mobile phones in the developing world. Fixedline networks are poor or nonexistent in many developing countries, so people have leapfrogged straight to mobile phones instead. The number of mobile phones now far outstrips the number of fixedline telephones in China, India and subSaharan Africa.
There are other examples. Incandescent light bulbs, introduced in the late 1870s, are slowly being displaced in the developed world by more energyefficient lightemitting diodes (LEDs), in applications from traffic lights to domestic lighting. LEDs could, however, have an even greater impact in parts of the developing world that lack mains power and electric lighting altogether. LEDs’ greater energy efficiency makes it possible to run them from batteries charged by solar panels during the day.
Being behind the "bleeding edge" of technological development can sometimes be a good thing, in short. It means that early versions of a technology, which may be buggy, unreliable or otherwise inferior, can be avoided. America, for example, was the first country to adopt colour television, which explains why American television still looks so bad today: other countries came to the technology later and adopted technically superior standards.
The lesson to be drawn from all of this is that it is wrong to assume that developing countries will follow the same technological course as developed nations. Having skipped fixedline telephones, some parts of the world may well skip desktop computers in favour of portable devices, for example. Entire economies may even leapfrog from agriculture straight to hightech industries. That is what happened in Israel, which went from citrus farming to microchips; India, similarly, is doing its best to jump straight to a hightech service economy.
Those who anticipate and facilitate leapfrogging can prosper as a result. Those who fail to see it coming risk being jumped over. Kodak, for example, hit by the sudden rise of digital cameras in the developed world, wrongly assumed that it would still be able to sell oldfashioned film and film cameras in China instead. But the emerging Chinese middle classes leapfrogged straight to digital cameras-and even those are now outnumbered by camera phones.
precision
n.精确，精确度
［真题例句］ The tests themselves are merely tools, with characteristics that can be measured with reasonable precision under specified conditions.［1995年翻译］
［例句精译］ 这些测试本身只是一种工具，其各种特性是可以在规定的条件下用相当的精度来测定的。
skip
v.跳，蹦，急速改变，跳读，遗漏，跳跃；n.跳跃
inferior
a.①（to）下等的，下级的；②差的，次的；n.下级，晚辈
［真题例句］ He will not do so for long, for mercifully the public has the good sense not to buy the inferior (a.②) article more than once.［1995年阅读1］
［例句精译］ 他这样做的时间不会长，因为庆幸的是，公众有良好的判断力，他们不会一而再、再而三地去购买劣质商品。
version
n.①型，版本；②译本，译文；③说法，看法；④（某种）形式
［真题例句］ And if scientists have yet to create the mechanical version (④) of science fiction, they have begun to come close.［2002年阅读2］
［例句精译］ 如果科学家们还没有在机械上实现科幻小说的幻想，那么他们也已经很接近这个目标了。
assume
v.①假装；②假定，设想；③采取，承担；④呈现；⑤以为，认为
［真题例句］ (71) Actually, it isnt, because it assumes (②) that there is an agreed account of human rights, which is something the world does not have.［1997年翻译］
［例句精译］ （71）事实并非如此，因为这种问法是以人们对人的权利达成共识为基础的，而这种共同认识并不存在。
［真题例句］ (41：Neither) kind of sleep is at all wellunderstood , but REM sleep is (42：assumed) (⑤) to serve some restorative function of the brain.［1995年完形］
［例句精译］ 我们对两种形式的睡眠了解都不多，但是人们认为REM睡眠对大脑起着某种康复功能。
facilitate
v.使变得（更）容易，使便利
［真题例句］ Technology has facilitated the sharing of information and the storage and delivery of information, thus making more information available to more people.［1995年阅读3］考试大收集整理
［例句精译］ 技术的发展促进了信息分享、存储和传递，这就使更多的人得到更多的信息。
emerge
v.浮现，出现
［真题例句］ Emerging from the 1980 census is the picture of a nation developing more and more regional competition, as population growth in the Northeast and Midwest reaches a near standstill.［1998年阅读4］
［例句精译］ 1980年美国人口普查表明：随着东北部和中西部人口增长近乎停止，地区间的竞争越来越激烈了。
Little Tips:
后发优势理论：发生变革的当代, 发展中国家完全有可能通过“蛙跳”实现对发达国家的赶超。从发展中国家的角度来看,新增长理论无外乎解释了两个经济现象:一个是“经济趋异”的原因,即发展中国家知识存量低于发达国家的“后发劣势”;二是“经济赶超”的途径,即发展中国家利用知识外溢和技术跳跃实现经济赶超的“后发优势”,具体而言是指,发展中国家通过选择性吸收和学习,可在短短几十年内跳跃式地获得发达国家用几百年才获得的知识存量。
落后于尖端
当谈到人类在某些新发明上取得进展时，人们往往会提到“技术行军”。这不禁让人眼前浮现一幅幅如军队般整齐排列、源源不断、表情严肃地向前迈进的景象。事实上，技术的进步很少有步调一致的情形。的确，有些技术的进步是以一种可预测的节奏进行着，他们遵循摩尔定律般简单的公式，好比是半导体工业的设计图纸。其他技术则往往举步维艰、坎坷难行——看看第三代移动电话或者微软最新版本的视窗操作系统就明白了。而在某些情况下，尤其在发展中国家，技术进步却是“跳跃式”的。
所谓“跳跃式”的进步就是跨越早期略显陈旧的技术而直接采用新技术。迄今，最深入人心的例子恐怕就是发展中国家的移动电话了。在许多发展中国家，固话网络发展落后甚至就没有。正因为如此，这些国家的人们便直接“跑步进入”移动电话时代。如今，在中国、印度和非洲撒哈拉沙漠以南地区手机的数量远远超过固定电话。
这儿还有一个例子。在发达国家里，从交通信号灯到家用照明灯，节能型LED灯正慢慢地取代19世纪70年代末引进的白炽灯。然而，在那些缺少电力网络和照明的发展中国家，LED可能已扮演更加重要的角色。凭借更高的能效，LED可以通过太阳能电池供能全天候工作。
总之，尖端技术发展落后有时也未必是坏事。也就是说，技术落后可以避免某项技术在发展初期可能不成熟、不可靠或者较粗糙所造成的麻烦。例如，美国是第一个使用彩色电视的国家，这也就解释为什么时至今日美国的电视机看起来还是那么糟糕；其他国家发展该项技术起步较晚，但采用的是更先进的技术工艺。
而种种技术跳跃也带来了启示：如果认为发展中国家会重复发达国家走过的技术发展历程，那就大错特错了。比如对世界上某些国家来说，既然已经跨越了固定电话，那么跨越台式进入便携式计算机时代或许也理所当然；甚至有可能整个国家从农业经济直接转向高科技产业。以色列便是例子，它从管理橘子园转变为生产微芯片；而印度也同样竭尽所能跻身高技术服务业。
早作准备并为之提供便利可以坐享技术跳跃带来的繁荣；而反应迟钝则意味着冒被他人赶超的危险。例如柯达，之前已经在发达国家内遭到数码相机的突袭而先败了一阵，却依然错误地判断老式胶卷和相机能够在中国帮其挽回颓势。但是，中国新兴的中产阶级们纷纷提前跨入了数码相机时代——而且现在，甚至连数码相机也被带有摄像功能的手机赶超了。 |
